Dr. Sebi Cell Food  ·  Discount Strategy

What a customer is worth, by the size of their first order

12-month and lifetime views side by side, margin-adjusted, with acquisition cost scaled up steeply for bigger baskets. Both are built conservatively.

12-Month view

3.4:1→8.9:1
Under $100$300+

What a customer acquired today returns in their first year.

Lifetime view (conservative)

4.4:1→11.2:1
Under $100$300+

All-time customer value, discounted 20% as a safety margin.

The takeaway: every tier clears the 3:1 health bar in both views. A $100+ first order returns about 2x what a sub-$100 order does in year one. Past $200, returns level off because bigger baskets cost more to win, so getting first orders over $100 is the lever that matters. Customers keep adding roughly 25–35% more value after their first year.

LTV : CAC by first-order size

Margin-adjusted · hover a bar for the breakdown

12-Month Lifetime 3:1 health bar
12
9
6
3
0
3:1
3.4
Under $100 · 12-Month
Customer value $80 · net $64
Est. CAC $19 · 3.4:1
4.4
Under $100 · Lifetime
Customer value $103 · net $82
Est. CAC $19 · 4.4:1
6.9
$100+ · 12-Month
Customer value $291 · net $232
Est. CAC $34 · 6.9:1
9.2
$100+ · Lifetime
Customer value $389 · net $310
Est. CAC $34 · 9.2:1
8.5
$200+ · 12-Month
Customer value $513 · net $409
Est. CAC $48 · 8.5:1
10.9
$200+ · Lifetime
Customer value $658 · net $525
Est. CAC $48 · 10.9:1
8.9
$300+ · 12-Month
Customer value $709 · net $566
Est. CAC $64 · 8.9:1
11.2
$300+ · Lifetime
Customer value $892 · net $712
Est. CAC $64 · 11.2:1
Under $100first order
$100+first order
$200+first order
$300+first order

The numbers

Customer value = average revenue per customer · Net = after 79.8% blended margin

12-Month Lifetime (conservative)
First order Est. CAC Value LTV:CAC Value LTV:CAC After yr 1
Under $100$19$803.4:1$1034.4:1+28%
$100+$34$2916.9:1$3899.2:1+34%
$200+$48$5138.5:1$65810.9:1+28%
$300+$64$7098.9:1$89211.2:1+26%

Recommended discounts per tier

Sized on the 12-month view · lifetime shown as upside

The discount budget is not CAC. It's the most you can give back at checkout to push an order over a threshold: 20% of the extra profit a bigger first order brings, after subtracting the extra acquisition cost this model assigns to bigger baskets. The offer sits at or under that ceiling.

Spend $100+ · top priority

$25 off

or a free product worth ~$30

Ceiling$31
Lifetime$43
Year-one return3.4 → 6.9:1

The biggest lever in the model: year-one return roughly doubles once a first order clears $100. The line sits just under your $109 average order, so many shoppers are one item away.

Spend $200+

$30 off

or free shipping + $20 off

Ceiling$33
Lifetime$40
Year-one return6.9 → 8.5:1

The extra value from this step is about the same as the $100 step, but these customers cost more to win. The offer only needs a $5 bump over the $100 rung to feel like a reward for spending more.

Spend $300+

$30 off + gift

free full-size product (~$40 retail)

Ceiling$28
Lifetime$34
Year-one return8.5 → 8.9:1

Returns level off here, so don't add more cash. A free product carries a high perceived value but costs you about $8 at your margins, well inside the budget for this step.

Crossing Extra profit Extra CAC Net gain Budget (20%) Lifetime budget
Under $100 → $100+$168−$15$153$31$43
$100+ → $200+$177−$14$163$33$40
$200+ → $300+$156−$16$141$28$34

How the ladder works

Offers replace each other, they don't stack: a $300 order gets the $300 offer only. What each rung really costs is the step up from the rung below: $25, then +$5, then about +$8 for the free product. Every step stays inside its budget.

Why three tiers, not every $50

  • The order data only breaks out at $100, $200 and $300. Steps at $150 or $250 would be guesses.
  • Each $50 step would carry only ~$15 of budget, too small an offer to change behavior.
  • More rungs pay out to more shoppers who'd have spent that much anyway, and they're harder to run.

How it's built

Three choices, each made to keep the numbers conservative

1

12-Month value

Real revenue from customers whose first order landed in each tier over the last 12 months. The most current read, and the lowest, since these customers have had the least time to reorder.

2

Lifetime value, cut 20%

All-time revenue per customer, reduced 20% across the board. Older cohorts have had years to reorder, so the raw number may overstate what a new customer will do. The haircut guards against that and any data error.

3

CAC rises with basket size

Instead of one flat $24.17 CAC, cost climbs roughly $15 per tier above $100. Across the real customer mix, that averages out to about $28, around 15% above the measured $24.17, which leaves a buffer for ad platforms double-counting conversions.

CAC = $18.69 × (order ÷ $65)^0.7